Forrester’s Global Sovereignty Forecast, 2025 to 2030, has found that the Asia Pacific (APAC) region encompasses both the world’s strongest and most constrained technology sovereignty, or the ability to develop, operate, and secure critical technologies independently of foreign governments’ influence.
Technology sovereignty in APAC
Across 14 countries assessed, China logged the highest overall tech sovereignty scores at 82%, with the US following close behind at 79%. Both countries are expected to maintain their lead over the next five years. With technology sovereignty becoming increasingly concentrated, the findings suggest that other countries will need to rely on strategic partnerships and alliances to close capability gaps and reduce critical technology dependencies.
According to Forrester’s forecast, South Korea is expected to rise from 45% in 2025 to 47% in 2030, followed by Japan from 43% to 46%. Forrester also projects an improvement in India from 32% to 35%. Australia is expected to remain flat at 29%.
“Ongoing geopolitical volatility, AI competition, and semiconductor supply chain risks have put tech sovereignty firmly in the spotlight,” said Dario Maisto, principal analyst at Forrester. “Today, tech sovereignty is concentrated in the hands of a few global leaders, creating an uneven competitive advantage for some countries. To compete in the AI era, nations must understand their strategic dependencies and build durable partnerships that safeguard their data, infrastructure, and long-term autonomy.”
The report assessed each country’s technology sovereignty index across nine dimensions: government AI investment, cloud sovereignty, technology workforce availability, AI model development, data centre capacity relative to technology spending, data centre autonomy, semiconductor production, software creation, and rare earths processing.
