I wouldn’t go so out as to call it a revolution but some of Saxo Capital Market’s outrageous predictions for 2022 may just be what we need, in some sectors of society, to correct the long-established habits (mislabelled as culture) and set us on a brighter and more balanced.
The predictions focus on a series of unlikely but underappreciated events which, if they were to occur, could send shockwaves across financial markets. Saxo Bank labels these as a warning against the potential misallocation of risk among investors who might typically assign just a one per cent chance of these events materialising.
While acknowledging these as not necessarily probable, the company believes these are nonetheless relevant in the context of the unexpected Covid-19 crisis. Inevitably the outcomes that prove the most disruptive (and therefore outrageous) are those that are a surprise to consensus.
Saxo Bank chief investment officer, Steen Jakobsen says the inability of the current system to address the issues of an unequal society and economic calls will lead to a revolution. The only unknown is the when and how.
“If the current system can’t change but must, a revolution is the only path forward.”
Steen Jakobsen
“We need a new Manhattan Project–-type endeavour to set the marginal cost of energy, adjusted for productivity, on the path to much lower levels while eliminating the impact of our energy generation on the environment,” he continued.
The Outrageous Predictions 2022:
1. The plan to end fossil fuels gets a rain check
Summary: Policymakers kick climate targets down the road and support fossil fuel investment to fight inflation and the risk of social unrest while rethinking the path to a low-carbon future.
2. Facebook faceplants on youth exodus
Summary: The young abandon Facebook’s platforms in protest at the mining of personal information for profit; the attempt by Facebook parent Meta to reel them back in with the Metaverse stumbles.
3. The US mid-term election brings constitutional crisis
Summary: The US mid-term election sees a stand-off over the certification of close Senate and/or House election results, leading to a scenario where the 118th Congress is unable to sit on schedule in early 2023.
4. US inflation reaches above 15% on wage-price spiral
Summary: By the fourth quarter of 2022, the wages for the lower half of US incomes are rising at an annualised 15% clip as companies scramble to find willing and qualified workers who are increasingly selective due to a rising sense of entitlement as jobs are plentiful relative to the meagre availability of workers at all skill levels.
5. EU Superfund for climate, energy and defence announced, to be funded by private pensions
Summary: To defend against the rise of populism, deepen the commitment to slowing climate change, and defend its borders as the US security umbrella recedes, the EU launches a bold $3 trillion Superfund to be funded by pension allocations rather than new taxes.
6. Women’s Reddit Army takes on the corporate patriarchy
Summary: Mimicking the meme stock Reddit Army tactics of 2020-21, a group of women traders launch a coordinated assault on companies with weak records on gender equality, leading to huge swings in equity prices for targeted companies.
7. India joins the Gulf Cooperation Council as a non-voting member
Summary: The world’s geopolitical alliances will lurch into a phase of drastic realignment as we have an ugly cocktail of new deglobalizing geopolitics and much higher energy prices.
8. Spotify disrupted due to NFT-based digital rights platform
Summary: Musicians are ready for change as the current music streaming paradigm means that labels and streaming platforms capture 75-95% of revenue paid for listening to streamed music. In 2022, new blockchain-based technology will help them grab back their fair share of industry revenues.
9. New hypersonic tech drives space race and new cold war
Summary: The latest hypersonic missile tests are driving a widening sense of insecurity as this tech renders legacy conventional and even nuclear military hardware obsolete. In 2022 a massive hypersonic arms race develops among major militaries as no country wants to feel left behind.
10. Medical breakthrough extends average life expectancy 25 years
Summary: Young forever, or for at least a lot longer. In 2022, a key breakthrough in biomedicine brings the prospect of extending productive adulthood and the average life expectancy by up to 25 years, prompting projected ethical, environmental and fiscal crises of epic proportions.
