Gartner defines digital commerce the “buying and selling of goods and services using the internet, mobile networks and commerce infrastructure. It includes research and marketing activities that support these transactions, including the people, processes and technologies used to execute all touchpoints through the customer’s buying journey.”
The Juniper Research study, Digital Commerce Coronavirus Analysis: Impact Assessments & Market Forecasts 2020-2024, forecasts that global spending on digital commerce will fall by 14% in 2020 as lockdowns and reductions in consumer spend are felt. Spending will fall from $11.2 trillion in 2019 to $9.7 trillion.
The Digital Commerce Coronavirus Analysis: Impact Assessments & Market Forecasts 2020-2024 report identified the digital ticketing area as particularly at risk; given the effect of widespread lockdowns on transport usage and events.
It found that digital ticketing spend will drop by 59% in 2020 compared to 2019. Airline ticketing will struggle to recover fully over the next 5 years, as airlines face unprecedented cashflow challenges which are set to reshape the face of the industry.
Recovery anticipated in 2021
The research identified that digital commerce spend will recover in 2021; exceeding 2019’s spend levels by 4%. While Juniper Research anticipates the economic disruption from the pandemic will last well into 2021, digital services are better placed than offline commerce for recovery, as there has been considerable migration from offline spend to online during the pandemic.
As a result of enforced changes during the pandemic, such as using contactless payments instead of cash, or buying groceries online, there will be permanent changes in consumer behaviour to the much greater use of digital services, which will bolster growth in digital commerce spend over the next 5 years.
The research also forecasts that payments for digital goods, such as digital games or video subscription services will continue to increase during the pandemic, as users on lockdown use digital services more extensively.
