With an estimated population of 69.89 million, as of 10 January 2021 and Statista pegging broadband penetration at 14.82% in 2019, you have to ask why is GlobalData forecasting a decline in the country’s total fixed communications services market revenue in Thailand?
The update calls for a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.2% from US$3bn in 2020 to US$2.5bn in 2025. The researcher blames this overall decline on fixed voice communication service revenue and slower growth in fixed broadband service segment,.
GlobalData’s Thailand Telecom Operators Country Intelligence Report predicts fixed voice service revenue to decline at a CAGR of 14.7% over 2020-2025 due to the steady fall in circuit switched service subscriptions and fixed voice average revenue per user (ARPU) levels.
Fixed broadband revenue, on the other hand, is expected to grow at a sluggish CAGR of 0.6% over 2020-2025 as growth in fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) and fixed wireless subscriptions will be weighed down by the drastic decline in cable Internet subscriptions.
Anshika Gandotra, Telecom analyst at GlobalData, says: “Fibre lines already account for the largest i.e., 57.6% share of the total fixed broadband lines as of 2020. They will continue to grow in number over the forecast period driven by the expansion of fibre-optic network coverage and growing demand for cost-saving multi-play bundled pans offered by operators over fibre broadband service.
“Though TOT currently leads the fixed voice services market in terms of subscription share, TrueOnline (TrueCorp) will surpass it in 2024 to become the leading player, supported by a strong focus on the VoIP segment. TrueCorp currently leads the fixed broadband market by subscriptions but will be overtaken by Three Broadband (3BB) in 2022, driven by a strong focus on fibre-optic network expansions and multi-play bundles with high-speed Internet access speed.”