Forrester's new research, 'The Quiet Roar of Artificial General Intelligence,' reveals that artificial general intelligence (AGI) is advancing faster than expected, with AI task complexity doubling every seven months since 2019, and foundation model costs have fallen 1,000% in three years.
"We define AGI through a pragmatic and functional lens: software that can autonomously act in pursuit of goals across domains by learning new skills, collaborating with humans and machines, and building software tools," said Brian Hopkins, VP, Emerging Tech Portfolio, Forrester.
Artificial general intelligence
The research found that AGI is already emerging in today's agentic systems and will progress from competent (domain-specific with supervision) to independent (cross-domain with minimal oversight) to strategic (autonomous across multiple domains) to superintelligent (functioning independently across all knowledge domains).
Moreover, according to Forrester,technical barriers, investment levels, and geopolitical factors will determine the pace of advancement of AGI, whether it will stabilise at each stage or rapidly advance. Its costs can reach $128 quintillion for fully autonomous systems.
Because of this, Forrester urges organisations to begin AI readiness training as AGI will reorganise knowledge workers across every industry. It can also create digital workforces that operate in tandem with human teams.
AGI will also impact global stability, creating geopolitical tensions and leaving the middle classes behind as AGI advancement unfolds. However, analysts predict that it could also improve global living standards by addressing distribution challenges.
"While AGI's long-term trajectory remains uncertain, what's directly ahead is not: over the next five years, AI systems will evolve toward competence and increasing independence. The foundations organisations lay now in AI readiness, governance, and workforce preparation will determine whether they thrive or struggle as AGI reshapes every aspect of business. This isn't a distant future concern; it's happening today, and enterprises need to start thinking about it now," emphasised Mike Gualtieri, VP principal analyst at Forrester.
